Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the listed date. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of it is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by that point, the market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading reflecting "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not qualify. If Russia comes to control this territory as the result of a negotiated settlement, that will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red on the ISW map. The announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control will not qualify; actual control must be established. Once Russia has captured the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not count towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/bpdGhKirAxb1ZT3k9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If both the ISW map and DeepStateMap become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be taken into account.
Reported by Versus Markets