Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves YES if Iran publicly commits to ending all uranium enrichment by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What qualifies: An official Iranian pledge to stop all uranium enrichment qualifies whether it is issued unilaterally or included in an agreement with the United States or Israel. A qualifying pledge or agreement counts as soon as it is made before the deadline, regardless of whether or when it takes effect. Iran may agree to end enrichment for any length of time; the commitment does not need to be permanent. A commitment made as a precondition for a broader peace process or more comprehensive agreement also qualifies, even if the wider deal has not been finalized or formally adopted. What does NOT qualify: An agreement that only restricts or caps the level or quality of uranium enrichment does not count. For example, a commitment to reduce enrichment below weapons-grade levels is insufficient unless Iran agrees to end enrichment entirely. Resolution source: A consensus of credible reporting.
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