Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, from 27 July 2026, 17:53:09.219 UTC through 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the US government or a person authorised to speak for it officially and publicly announces that the US naval blockade of Iranian ships and of ships serving Iran's customers is ended, lifted, terminated or suspended. Otherwise NO. The announcement must make clear that the United States will, in general, no longer block vessel traffic by Iranian ships and by ships of Iran's customers; saying the blockade is cancelled before it starts also qualifies. Either way it qualifies even if some restrictions, such as fees, stay in place. A change that is only limited or partial and falls short of ending or suspending the blockade in general, for example an exemption for one ship, cargo or port, does not count. It has to state a decided position: that the blockade is ending or suspended now, that it had already been ended or suspended without an announcement, or that a definite decision to end or suspend it has been taken. The word blockade need not appear: announcing a resumption of earlier obligations, that the status quo is being maintained, or a move back to a baseline agreed earlier counts, provided it clearly and unambiguously communicates that the blockade is ended or suspended. Statements that merely hint at, mention or describe an end without clearly communicating it are not enough. It must come through official channels from someone acting in an official capacity; offhand or informal remarks made outside official communication do not count. Also excluded: anonymous, unattributed or leaked statements unless they are confirmed as official; remarks from anyone without authority to speak on behalf of the US government; outside speculation, analysis or forecasts; satirical, fabricated, hacked or impersonated messages; and statements that describe a future, conditional, likely or contingent end instead of a present, decided position. A qualifying announcement settles YES even if it is later reversed or the blockade goes on in practice. Decided by official information from the US government, for example from the President, the Pentagon (Department of Defense), the State Department or US Central Command (CENTCOM), or from other official representatives of the US government.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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