Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if a U.S. bank with total assets above $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/) is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. For this market, a bailout means any of the following actions taken in direct response to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns: - The establishment of a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility - The creation of an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank - A U.S. Treasury capital injection - A publicly disclosed, regulator-facilitated acquisition An official announcement from the U.S. government that it is taking any of these actions will be enough to qualify, regardless of whether or when the action is actually carried out. Routine use of standing facilities, such as the discount window or BTFP, as well as participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervisory measures, will not qualify on their own. If a bank comes under stress but is acquired privately without public intervention or official coordination, that will not qualify.
Reported by Versus Markets