Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the Saudi government officially announces, at any time from 23 September 2026, 18:13:54 UTC through 15 October 2026, 11:59 PM ET, that the East-West crude oil pipeline is operating or is no longer shut down. Otherwise NO. The announcement has to say that the pipeline is running at the time it is made; running at partial or reduced capacity is enough. Not enough for YES: announcements that only attribute the claim to someone else; statements that it will or may run in future; descriptions of work still under way to get the pipeline running again; and any restart presented as expected, planned or conditional. Media reports that rely on unnamed people, and ship-tracking or satellite data, do not count. A statement issued by the Saudi government itself does, including a Saudi Press Agency statement attributed to an official source at the Ministry of Energy. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, the answer is YES, even if later statements or other sources say otherwise. Decided by official information from the Saudi government, such as statements by the Ministry of Energy.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
