Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if a natural meteoroid or bolide explodes in Earth’s atmosphere with total impact energy of at least 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1, 2026, at 6:00 AM CET, and January 1, 2027, at 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. Only naturally occurring meteoroids qualify. Artificial objects and reentry vehicles do not count. Resolution is primarily based on NASA’s JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/ The “Impact Energy (kt)” column will be used. If the dataset is incomplete by February 28, 2027, or becomes permanently unavailable, resolution may rely on a consensus of credible sources, including the ESA, IAWN, U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus such as a NASA press release.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
