Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the electoral list Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia (on the ballot as ALEKSANDAR VUCIC - UJEDINJENA SRBIJA) finishes first in Serbia's early parliamentary election of 25 October 2026, the vote that fills all 250 seats of the National Assembly. Otherwise NO. Lists are ranked first by the number of seats they win. Where two or more lists hold the same number of seats, the one with more valid votes ranks higher; if they are still level after that, the alphabetical order of the list names decides. The list at the top of this ranking finishes first. Only the seats won by the list under the name it carries on the ballot and in the official proclamations count. Which parties make up the list, and how its members later group themselves in the assembly, make no difference. If the outcome is not definitively known by 31 March 2027, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the result counts as 'Other' - none of the lists is the winner - so this settles NO. Settled on the election result as reliable reporting broadly agrees on it; if that leaves any doubt, only the results published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (RIK, https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/) count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
