Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if Andy Burnham’s departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. A departure is considered announced if Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or an authorized representative publicly and definitively states that Burnham has ceased to be Prime Minister or will cease to be Prime Minister. This includes announcements of resignation, removal, or any other form of departure, and it will qualify regardless of when the departure actually takes effect. Only announcements describing a departure intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement date will qualify. For example, statements such as “I will leave office in two years” or “I will not be in office forever” would not qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, fixed-term suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary changes to Burnham’s duties do not qualify. The following do not count as public and definitive announcements: statements that Burnham is considering leaving or is open to leaving; conditional statements that he would depart only if certain conditions are met; an offered resignation that still requires acceptance and remains pending or has been rejected; media reports claiming he plans to leave; sarcastic or joking remarks; and statements made by anyone other than Burnham, the relevant UK authority, or their authorized representatives. If Burnham holds office on a fixed term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he will leave before that scheduled end date will qualify. If Burnham formally leaves office before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will still resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that departure by the specified date, 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reported by Versus Markets