Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy of at least 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent January 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CET through January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET; otherwise it resolves No. The object must be a natural meteoroid - artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. Primary source: the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository (cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/), using the "Impact Energy (kt)" column. If that dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution may rely on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency, the International Asteroid Warning Network, the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus such as a NASA press release.
Reported by @Reuters