Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kup'yans'k-Pivdennyi railway station (49.712076° N, 37.606819° E) on Pryvokzalna vulytsia in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, by 05:59 CET/CEST on the morning after the specified date. The station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by then, this market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading reflecting either "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control will not qualify — actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railway station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/9Pt8PPbQvWLerHLr6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Reported by Versus Markets