Prediction
Answer Options
Settles YES if Russia's own armed forces land a qualifying strike on the land territory or internal waters of an EU country between 19 September 2026, 00:37:35 UTC and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET (1 January 2027, 04:59 UTC). Otherwise NO. Two kinds of attack qualify, each started by Russia and each having to hit home. One is a strike from the air: bombs, air-to-surface missiles and drones released by aircraft. The other is a surface-to-surface missile strike: one-way attack drones, plus surface-to-surface missiles, cruise and ballistic missiles for example. Russia's armed forces have to be the ones carrying it out - private military companies, hired fighters, proxy formations and any other country's forces, Belarus included, all fall outside this. EU country means any of the 27 states that made up the European Union on 19 September 2026 at 00:37:35 UTC. Nothing else counts. Specifically ruled out: any munition destroyed or intercepted before impact; strikes that use surface-to-air missiles; small-arms fire; troops moving across a border on foot or in vehicles; cyber operations; guns fired from warships; howitzers, artillery pieces of every kind, mortars and rocket artillery such as multiple launch rocket systems; minor surface-to-surface strikes such as short-range loitering munitions, first-person-view attack drones and anti-tank guided missiles; sabotage, arson and other covert work done without the munitions listed above; and force that is only threatened, authorised or announced. Debris, fragments and wreckage from an intercepted munition that come down on an EU country are never enough, whatever damage they do. If something crosses into an EU country while Russia is attacking a country outside the bloc, Ukraine included, it counts only where the sources broadly agree that it was directed at a target inside that EU country. Where Russia's government or military claims the strike as its own, it counts. Only a country's land territory and its internal waters are in scope: maritime territory and airspace are not, and neither are member-state territories that sit outside the EU treaties, among them Greenland, the Faroe Islands and the associated overseas countries and territories. Where a border is contested, what counts is the land the EU country both claimed and actually held on 19 September 2026 at 00:37:35 UTC. Whether such a strike happened, who carried it out and when are settled by agreement across the whole body of information available from these sources taken together: what Russia and the EU country concerned say officially, from their governments and their armed forces alike, what NATO and the European Union publish, and credible reporting. Where reports clash on any of those three, the outcome waits for whichever arrives first: agreement across the sources, or the close of three full calendar days (Eastern Time, ET) counted from the date on which the first credible evidence was reported - and that wait runs on even if it passes the closing date. If the reports still clash when that third day ends, the whole body of information available at that point decides, and no lone statement, denial or piece of presented evidence governs where the totality of that information contradicts it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
