Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if Renan Santos wins 8 percent or more of the valid votes in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, scheduled for 4 October 2026. Otherwise NO. His share is worked out by dividing the valid votes cast for him in the first round by every valid vote cast in that round. Where the figure reported sits exactly on the line between two ranges, the upper range applies, so an exact 8 percent counts as YES. Should his name be missing from the first-round ballot, or should he end up with no valid votes at all, the lowest range applies and the answer is NO. The same follows if the outcome is still not definitively known at 11:59 PM US Eastern Time on 30 June 2027. The official count decides. If a recount begins before the totals become official, the outcome stays open until that recount is finished and the count is official. The result is taken from broad agreement among reliable reports; where anything is unclear, it is settled solely on the official figures the Brazilian state publishes, among them those of the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, for example at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
