Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a seven-day moving average of transit calls, listed as "Arrivals of Ships", for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between the market's creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise it will resolve to No. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker ships. Vessels not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a seven-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above that level, or once data has been published for the final date in the period without any such value having appeared. If no data has been published for the final date of the period within fourteen calendar days of the end of that period, ending at 05:59 CET/CEST on the fifteenth day, this market will resolve on the basis of the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within the market's timeframe will be taken into account, but they will not disqualify a data point that has already qualified. Revisions made after data has been published for December 31, 2026 will not be considered. In cases of obvious data integrity issues, meaning erroneous data, the market may remain open until 05:59 CET/CEST on the fourth calendar day after the date on which the data in question was first released, in order to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and in the downloadable files.
Reported by Versus Markets