Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the armed forces of Greece and Turkey by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A military engagement is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, an exchange of gunfire or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The intentional ramming of one side's military ship by the other will count towards a "Yes" resolution if it causes significant damage, such as a hole in the hull, or sinks the vessel, but minor damage such as scrapes or dents will not. Missile or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on the adversary's territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes that impact the adversary's territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, although a surface-to-air missile fired at an adversary's military aircraft would qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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