Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET; otherwise it resolves No. Territory under ROC administration, including any inhabited islands, qualifies; uninhabited islands do not. The resolution source is official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, though a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
