Prediction
Answer Options
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution will be based on the results of every Senate election, including special elections, that is scheduled as of October 31, 2026 to take place in November 2026. If a required runoff in any of those elections could change the outcome, this market will remain open until that runoff has been conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant and no corresponding election is held in November 2026, that seat will be treated as held by the party of its most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by the affiliation listed on the ballot, or otherwise identifiable, at the point when all of the 2026 Senate elections have been conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate with no ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican party will be counted as a member of whichever of the two they most recently expressed an intention to caucus with, again assessed at the point when all of the Senate elections have been conclusively called. The resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. This market will resolve once all three have conclusively called every Senate election. If the three do not reach a consensus on the relevant races, resolution will be based on the official certification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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