Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognises María Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify as leader of Venezuela include, but are not limited to, head of state, president or any similar role giving her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive or implied statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, although a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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