Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, by 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Israel's government, or someone authorised to speak for it in an official capacity, announces publicly and on the record that Iran or an affiliated group deliberately caused the cockpit attack on flydubai flight FZ1073 of 30 September 2026. A statement or release from the government or one of its agencies counts, and public statements by the Prime Minister or any Cabinet minister are always treated as official and on the record. Remarks by lawmakers or other officials do not qualify on their own when they speak personally or for a party outside government. The prediction opens on 30 September 2026 at 21:34:58 UTC. A statement makes that claim only if it explicitly says that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, planned, carried out, directly assisted or coordinated the attack. 'Affiliated group' means any organisation directly controlled by Iran, and also each of the Houthis (Ansar Allah), Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Iraqi militias Harakat al-Nujaba, the Badr Organization, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah. Another named group qualifies only when Israel's own claim, or statements and releases that accompany it, identify the group as an Iranian proxy or as controlled or directed by Iran, and a general claim that an Iranian proxy did it also qualifies. Claims that Iran merely inspired the attacker or shaped his ideas, for example by radicalising him, do not count. Once a qualifying statement has been made, a later retraction or walk-back does not change the result. Otherwise NO. Israel's own official statements come first; broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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