Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves YES if, at any point between market creation and January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET, a Chinese company owns the model with the highest Arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. Otherwise, it resolves NO. Leaderboard settings: Resolution uses the “Score” column under the “Text Arena | Overall” leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control turned off. Qualifying Chinese companies: These include, but are not limited to, Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. A company does not qualify as primarily Chinese if it is neither headquartered in China nor primarily owned or operating within China’s technology ecosystem. Ranking requirement: Models are ranked by their Arena scores at the relevant check time. A Chinese company’s model must have a strictly higher score than every other model. A tie for the highest score does not qualify. Resolution source: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/ is the primary source. If it is unavailable at the relevant check time, the market remains open until the leaderboard returns and resolves using the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Reported by Versus Markets