Prediction
Answer Options
The market resolves to the bracket containing the annual U.S. goods-and-services deficit for 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release covering December and the full year 2026. The release is expected in February 2027 and will be published at: bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure is the annual total listed under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (Exhibit 1).” Any changes to the BEA or USCB reporting format will not disqualify an otherwise relevant published figure. If the reported deficit falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. The primary source is the BEA and USCB release for December and Annual 2026. If that release has not been published by May 1, 2027, at 5:59 AM CEST, another credible source reporting the 2026 annual U.S. goods-and-services deficit will be selected. Revisions published after the release’s initial publication are not considered.
Reported by @Forbes