Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the Kaub gauge on the Rhine (station 25700100) records no water level of 77 centimetres or more for any timestamp from 6 September 2026, 16:26:59 UTC, through the end of 31 October 2026, Berlin time; readings stamped 00:00 on 1 November or later do not count. Otherwise NO: the first reading of 77 cm or higher in that period settles it as NO at once. 77 cm is the GlW (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand) for Kaub, the low-water benchmark for Rhine shipping. One reading at or above 77 cm is enough for NO, even a short spike; the river does not have to stay at that level. YES is settled once PegelOnline has any Kaub reading timestamped 1 November 2026 or later (Berlin time) and no reading timestamped from 6 September 2026, 16:26:59 UTC, to the end of 31 October 2026 (Berlin time) is 77 cm or higher. If PegelOnline still has no reading timestamped 1 November 2026 or later by 11:59 PM Berlin time on 2 November 2026, and no reading in that same pre-November window is 77 cm or higher, the answer is YES as well. Readings timestamped 1 November or later only show that the window has closed; they never count toward the 77 cm threshold. Decided by the Kaub readings that Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) publishes on PegelOnline: https://pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
